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Portfolio Insurance – Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy
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Published on 17 March 2007
 
The report “Portfolio Insurance – Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy" is prepared to fulfill the partial requirement of Financial Derivatives course of MBA Program of UNIVERSITY OF DHAKA. The objective of this report is to find out how equity risk can be managed (either eliminated or reduced) through dynamic asset allocation.

Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy - Introduction
“PORTFOLIO INSURANCE – DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY”

COURSE CODE – F-503

GROUP: FINANCE
UNIVERSITY OF DHAKA

PREPARED FOR
Dr. Mahmood Osman Imam
Professor of Finance
Department of Finance
University of Dhaka


March 28, 200..


Dr. Mahmood Osman Imam
Professor of Finance
Department of Finance
University of Dhaka

Dear Sir,

It is my immense pleasure to submit my class report as you asked me to prepare and submit as a requirement of Financial Derivatives course (F-503) on "Portfolio Insurance – Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy ".

I have tried my best to compile the pertinent information as comprehensively as possible and if you need any further information, I will be obliged to assist you.

Thanking you,

----------


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

At first I would like thank our course teacher Dr. Mahmood Osman Imam for giving us such an important job like managing the portfolio insurance using dynamic asset allocation strategy.

During the preparation of the report we did have some problem that has been erased out with your propound lecture and assistance. Without your cooperation and guideline this report would have been an incomplete one. Finally thank you for your supportive thought and kind consideration for formulating an idea.


Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2. Management of Equity Risk
3. Asset Allocation Strategies
4. Portfolio Insurance
5. Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy
6. Industry Analysis
7. Company Analysis
8. Information
9. 100% Equity Investment
10. 50% Equity and 50% Bond Investment
11. Delta Calculation
12. Graphical Presentation:
Static Approach
Delta
Dynamic Approach
13. References


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report “PORTFOLIO INSURANCE – DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY " is prepared to fulfill the partial requirement of Financial Derivatives course (F-503) of MBA Program of UNIVERSITY OF DHAKA.

The objective of this report is to find out how equity risk can be managed (either eliminated or reduced) through dynamic asset allocation. This report discusses the ways of handling the risk arising from holdings of portfolio of risky assets and riskless assets that means how to manage insured portfolio which is a hedging technique frequently used by institutional investors when the market direction is uncertain or volatile. Portfolio insurance is a dynamic trading strategy designed to protect a portfolio from market declines while preserving the opportunity to participate in market advances.

Several portfolio insurance methods exist and are used in practice. The best known strategy involves trading in ‘real’ and / or ‘synthetic’ options. For some reasons, most investors prefer not to use the option market for insuring the portfolio. Hence it calls for the dynamic trading strategy replicating the option strategy to insure the portfolio. In this strategy, the manager replicates an option through continuously revising the proportions of a portfolio consisting of the underlying risky asset (stock/bond) and the riskless asset (bond/T-bill) to insure portfolio’s value.

In this report I have to analyze the industry and company to select the securities to invest. First I construct two portfolios one investing 100% in equity another investing 50% in equity and 50% in bonds. Total amount of investment is 5,00,000 taka. And assumed bond rate was 7%. After static approach I found out Delta. Delta tells us the number of shares to be hold to hedge the portfolio. Delta is the differences between higher and lower value of 50% equity investment divided by the differences between higher and lower value of 100% equity investment. Here I assume that there is a 90% chance to realize the higher value and 80% chance to realize the lower value. Then I assign the portfolio according to delta and find out the insured value.

Management of Equity Risk and Asset Allocation Strategies
Management of Equity Risk

Management of equity risk refers to either eliminate or reduce the risk associated with equity securities through the use of derivatives and dynamic asset allocation. Equity risk refers to variation in the value of individual shares of that of an equity portfolio. Equity risk essentially a ‘price risk’.


Asset Allocation Strategies

Establishing an appropriate asset mix is a dynamic process that may be the most important determinant of your portfolio's overall risk and return. Your portfolio's asset mix should reflect your goals at any point in time. There are a few different strategies of establishing asset allocations, and here we outline some of them and examine their basic management approaches.

Strategic asset allocation is a method that establishes and adheres to what is called a "base policy mix." This is a proportional mix of assets based on expected rates of return for each asset class. For example, if stocks have historically returned 10% per annum and bonds have returned 5% per annum, a mix of 50% stocks and 50% bonds would be expected to return 7.5% per year.

Strategic asset allocation generally implies a buy-and-hold strategy, even as the inevitable shifting values of assets will result in a drift from the initially established policy mix. For this reason, investors may choose to adopt a constant-weighting approach to asset allocation, in which the portfolio is continually re-balanced. For example, if one asset were declining in asset value, investors would purchase more of that asset class due to its "cheap" status, and if that asset value should increase in value it would be sold because it has become "expensive." There are no hard-and-fast rules for the timing of portfolio re-balancing under strategic or constant-weighting asset allocation. However, a common rule-of-thumb is that the portfolio should be re-balanced to its original mix when any given asset class moves more than 5% from its original value.

Over the long run, a strategic asset allocation strategy may seem relatively rigid. Therefore, the investor may find it necessary to occasionally engage in short-term, tactical deviations from the mix in order to capitalize on unusual or exceptional investment opportunities. This flexibility adds a component of market timing to the portfolio, allowing investors to participate in economic conditions that are more favorable for the performance of one asset class than for others.

Tactical asset allocation can be described as a moderately active strategy, since the overall strategic asset mix is returned to when desired short-term profits are achieved. This strategy demands some discipline from the investor or portfolio manager, as he or she must first be able to recognize when short-term opportunities have run their course, and then re-balance the portfolio to the long-term asset position.

Another active asset allocation strategy is dynamic asset allocation, in which the mix of assets is constantly adjusted as markets rise and fall and the economy strengthens and weakens. Because it sells assets that are declining in value and purchases assets that are increasing in value, the dynamic asset allocation is the polar opposite of a constant-weighting strategy. For example, in a dynamic portfolio, if the stock market is showing weakness, stocks are sold in anticipation of further decreases in stock values, and if the market is strong, stocks are purchased in anticipation of continued market gains.

Under an insured asset allocation strategy, a base portfolio value is established under which the portfolio should not be allowed to drop. As long as the portfolio achieves a return above its base, active management is exercised to try to increase the portfolio value as much as possible. If, however, the portfolio should ever drop to the base value, all assets are invested in risk-free assets so that the base value becomes fixed. At such time, the investor would consult with his or her advisor on re-allocating assets, perhaps changing his or her investment strategy entirely. An insured asset allocation strategy can be implemented by way of a formula approach or a portfolio insurance approach. The formula approach is a graduated strategy: as the portfolio value decreases, more and more risk-free assets are purchased so that when the portfolio reaches its base level it is entirely invested in risk-free assets. The portfolio insurance approach uses put options and/or futures contracts to preserve the base capital. Both approaches are considered active management strategies, but when the base amount is reached, a passive approach is adopted.
Insured asset allocation would be suitable to risk-averse investors who desire a certain level of active portfolio management but appreciate the security of establishing a guaranteed floor below which the portfolio is not allowed to decline. For example, an investor who wishes to establish a minimum standard of living during retirement might find an insured asset allocation strategy ideally suited to his or her management goals.

Integrated asset allocation ensures that both economic expectations and client risk are considered in establishing an asset mix. While all of the above-mentioned strategies for asset allocation take into account expectations for future capital market returns, not all of the strategies account for investment risk tolerance. Therefore, integrated asset allocation includes aspects of all strategies, accounting not only for expectations but also actual changes in capital markets and the investor's risk tolerance. Integrated asset allocation is a broader asset allocation strategy, albeit one allowing for only one of dynamic or constant-weighting allocation--obviously, an investor would not wish to implement the aspects of two strategies that are competing with one another.

Asset allocation can be an active process in varying degrees or strictly passive in nature. Whether an investor chooses a precise asset allocation strategy or a combination of different strategies depends on that investor's goals, age, and risk tolerance. Keep in mind, however, that this article gives only general guidelines on how investors may use asset allocation as a part of their core strategies. Be aware that allocation approaches that involve anticipating and reacting to market movements require a great deal of expertise and talent in using particular tools for timing these movements. Some would say that accurately timing the market is next to impossible, so make sure your strategy isn't too vulnerable to unforeseeable errors.

Portfolio Insurance and Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy
Portfolio Insurance

The financial product known as portfolio insurance was born the night of September 11, 1976.  Hayne Leland had recently returned from France, and had been lamenting the weakness of the dollar. Portfolio insurance is a dynamic trading strategy designed to protect a portfolio from market declines while preserving the opportunity to participate in market advances.

An early criticism of portfolio insurance was that it reduced return as well as reducing risk.  But users are discovering that portfolio insurance can be used aggressively rather than simply to reduce risks.  Long-run returns can actually be raised, with downside risks controlled, when insurance programs are applied to more aggressive active assets.  Pension, endowment, and educational funds can actually enhance their expected returns by increasing their commitment to equities and other high-return sectors, while fulfilling their fiduciary responsibilities by insuring this more aggressive portfolio.  Compared with current static allocation techniques, annual expected returns can be raised by as much as 200 basis points per year.
 

Properties of Insured Portfolios:

The return pattern of the insured portfolio has several important properties:

(A) The probability of experiencing any losses is zero.

(B) The return on any profitable position will be a predictable percentage of the rate of return that would have been earned by investing all funds in the S&P 500.

(C) If the portfolio is restricted to investments in the S&P 500 and cash loans, if the expected rate of return on the S&P 500 exceeds the return on cash, and if the insurance is fairly priced, then among all investment strategies possessing properties (A) and (B), the insured portfolio strategy has the highest expected rate of return.


Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy

In this strategy, the manager replicates an option through continuously revising the proportions of a portfolio consisting of the underlying risky asset (stock/bond) and the riskless asset (bond/T-bill) to insure portfolio’s value.

This strategy requires buying more stock when the market is going up and selling off some stock as the market is goes down.

The proportions allocated to the underlying risky asset and the riskless asset change every period, so this strategy requires a significant amount of trading.

The number of units of the underlying risky asset that must be held long at any given moment will be given by the call option’s ‘Delta’, the reciprocal of how many calls it takes to hedge a unit of the underlying portfolio. The call delta tells us the number of units of the underlying portfolio to hold.

The amount of riskless asset to hold is determined by subtracting the value of the units held in the underlying asset from the total value of the insured portfolio.

Industry Analysis

Industry Analysis

 
An investor who is convinced that the economy and market are attractive for investing should proceed to consider those industries that promise the most opportunities in the coming years. The significance of industry analysis can be established by considering the performance of various industries which are shown in the following table:

 
Sectoral Performance in October, 2004

Sector

Market Capitalization

% of total Market Cap

Turnover (Tk. in mn)

% of total turnover

End of the Current Month (October)

End of the last Month (September)

For this Month October

For the Month September

Financial Institutions

Banks

85,075

62,019

44.29

3,706.44

2,808.69

60.93

Insurance

9,584

8,051

4.99

147.8

270.48

2.43

Investment

1,920.85

1,515

1

40.03

47.95

0.66

Manufacturing 

Foods

11,234

11,359

5.85

133.23

127.23

2.19

Pharmaceuticals

29,478

28,602

15.35

579.98

832.78

9.53

Textile

8,553

7,746

4.45

278.51

483.27

4.58

Engineering

8,277

7,162

4.31

340.31

240.66

5.59

Ceramics

823

916

0.43

25.24

38.97

0.41

Tannery

3,666

3,498

1.91

123.78

176.79

2.03

Paper & Printing

184

222

0.1

0.99

3.49

0.02

Jute

143

133

0.07

0.22

0.24

0

Cement

23,337

22,148

12.15

339.11

258.61

5.57

Service & Miscellaneous 

Fuel & Power

4,628

4,231

2.41

42.99

18.87

0.71

Service & Real Estate

1,274

1,224

0.66

49.01

59.9

0.81

IT

1,131

933

0.59

118.63

142.82

1.95

Miscellaneous

2,253

2,024

1.17

158.61

137.55

2.61

 
According to the performance of different sectors I select five companies from five sectors which are: Bank, pharmaceutical, textile, food and engineering.

The top five sectors according to turnover are:

  1. Banks
  2. Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals
  3. Engineering
  4. Cement
  5. Textile.

The top five sectors according to market capitalization are:

  1. Banks
  2. Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals
  3. Cement
  4. Food
  5. Insurance

Company Analysis
Company Analysis

Once market analysis has indicated a favorable time to invest in common stocks and industry analysis has been performed to find those industries with the most promising future, it remains for the investor to choose promising companies within those industries. In doing company analysis an investor should think in terms of the two components of fundamental value – dividends and required rate of return or alternatively, earnings and the P/E ratio.

Companies are analyzed through the study of wide range of data, including P/E ratios, EPS, NAV per share, net profit or loss after tax, reserve and surplus, market categories and so on. According to these criteria of company analysis I selected the following companies which are shown in the following table-

Name of the Company

Marker Category

Reserve & Surplus

Net Profit/(Loss) after Tax (Tk. Mm)

EPS

P/E

Ratio

Dhaka Bank

A

589.49

269.01

50.65

14.62

Singer Bangladesh

A

86.01

129.28

77.78

21.83

Padma Textile

A

1174.91

78.43

9.49

10.47

British American Tobacco

A

1708.79

871.31

14.52

9.99

ACI Limited

A

186.86

85.41

5.28

16.43


There are four category – A, B, G and Z. The turnovers of ‘A’ category companies are higher than other categories (B, G, Z).


References

Managing Equity Risk: Strategies, Stock Index Future, And Portfolio Insurance

Options, Futures and Other Derivatives, John C. Hull

Fundamental of Investment, Charles P. Jones, Frank k. Reilly, Keith C. Brown

The Evolution of Portfolio Insurance, Hayne E. Leland and Mark Rubinstein

(Published in Dynamic Hedging: A Guide to Portfolio Insurance,

edited by Don Luskin (John Wiley and Sons, 1988)


Websites:

www.dsebd.org (Dhaka Stock Exchange)

http://www.secbd.org (Securities and Exchange Commission, Bangladesh)

www.investopedia.com

www.dynaporte.com

www.in-the-money.com